Tips & Trends

The Day After from Gallatin Public Affairs


November 4, 2008 will be long remembered as a historic day in American politics.

It was a long, grueling, consequential and endlessly fascinating election that “political junkies” will be discussing for months — or years — to come.

We're hoping you might enjoy some of our day-after insights from around the Northwest and from Gallatin's Washington, D.C. outpost. Read on for a state-by-state assessment of some of the big winners and losers. 

 
IDAHO
Idaho remains for yet another election cycle among the most Republican states in the nation. Democrats dented the GOP armor in only one important race, picking up a congressional seat held by Republicans for 36 of the last 40 years.
  WINNERS
  • Congressman-elect Walt Minnick — A stunning pickup for Democrats in one of the most dependable GOP seats in the nation; a district that runs from Canada to Nevada. Minnick relied on a moderate, business-oriented, pro-gun approach that generated just enough moderate Republican support to upend a controversial first termer, Bill Sali.
  • Senator-elect Jim Risch — Idaho's newest GOP senator is a testament to the fact that there are second, even third acts in American politics. After a state legislative defeat in the 1990s, some wrote off the resourceful Risch. But after strong performances as  lieutenant governor and governor, one-time skeptics can now refer to him as Idaho's junior senator.
  • Idaho Republicans — The GOP will maintain overwhelming dominance in the state legislature and statewide elective office.
LOSERS
  • Appropriations clout — With the departure of Larry Craig after 18 years in the Senate, Idaho will be left with one appropriator — Rep. Mike Simpson — who will become even more influential as a go-to guy with friends on both sides of the aisle.
  • Influence within the administration — Other than the talented Jim Messina, a deputy campaign manager for Obama, former Baucus top staffer and Idaho native, there are likely to be few, if any, well-placed Idahoans in an Obama Administration.
  • Idaho Democrats — With only the Minnick win to brag about, the party must, like the Chicago Cubs, embark upon yet another re-building phase.
  MONTANA
   Montana's perennial image as a solidly red state faded some on Tuesday, but certainly didn't show signs of a complete palate revision. While Sen. John McCain was declared the winner of the state's three electoral votes, it was by the narrowest of margins, with Montana — where Obama campaigned heavily and McCain not at all — being one of the last states to be called in the presidential race. At the state level, results were mixed with Democrats winning most of the statewide offices.
  WINNERS
  • The big three incumbents — Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Sen. Max Baucus, both Democrats, and Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg all easily won re-election to their respective seats as expected. Baucus prevailed 3-1, Rehberg even drew the vote of his opponent, while Schweitzer's strong campaign led to a big win.
  • A historic first — Montana voters elected Denise Junuea as the new state superintendent of public instruction. Juneau, an enrolled member of the Three Affiliated Tribes Indian Nation, is the first Native American elected to a statewide office in Montana.
  • Democratic Attorney General-elect Steve Bullock — The relative newcomer won a narrow victory in a tough race with Republican rival Tim Fox, which positions Bullock as one of his party's stars in the post-Schweitzer era.
LOSERS
  • A bi-partisan Land Board — Preliminary results indicate that for the first time in a very long time one party (the Democrats) will control all five seats on the state Land Board, which is charged with overseeing school trust land in the state. Some speculate this will be a setback for coal development as Democrats have traditionally looked askance at marketing the state's coal.
  • Legislative Democrats — The R's gained strength in the Montana Legislature. Unofficial and incomplete results showed a strong likelihood of Republicans controlling the Senate and gaining seats in the Democratically-controlled House.
  • Campaign finance — In a state where retail politics used to be the norm, more and more money showed up from national political action committees, independent expenditure organizations and outsiders with an interest in the Big Sky state. Record amounts were spent even in typically low-cost statewide campaigns. For example, the attorney general race was no less than four times as expensive as the same race a few cycles ago.
  OREGON
   This election should end the myth of Oregon as a “swing” state. Due to Bush backlash, changing state demographics and impressive organizing by state Democrats, Oregon is now a very “blue” state. At this hour, the hard fought U.S. Senate race between GOP incumbent Gordon Smith and Democrat challenger Jeff Merkley is too close to call. But Democrats now hold every statewide office, hold all but one seat in Congress and enjoy historic “supermajorities” in the legislature, making it easier to raise taxes and fees. Looking ahead, with the GOP in shambles, watch for Oregon Democrats to grapple with an expected huge state budget deficit in 2009 and to begin jockeying for a wide-open race for governor in 2010.

WINNERS

  • Oregon Democrats — With strong support from unions and other allies, since 2002 Democrats have used two gubernatorial contests, two presidential campaigns and opposition to an onslaught of conservative Bill Sizemore-sponsored ballot measures to create a unified and effective permanent campaign organization benefitting candidates up and down the ballot.
  • Sen. Ron Wyden — Featured in positive campaign ads by both Democrat Merkley and Republican Smith, Wyden gains bipartisan cred with his constituents while earning partisan cred in Washington, D.C. by stumping hard for Merkley. Wyden also gains seniority in a Democrat-dominated Senate where he can push his health care legislation.
  • Rep. Earl Blumenauer — An early and avid backer of Barack Obama, the Portland Democrat has positioned himself — and his ideas on urban planning, land use and transportation — to merit attention as a possible transportation or HUD secretary in an Obama administration. If not, he is a front-runner for Oregon governor in 2010.
  • Gordon Smith/Jeff Merkley — If Smith wins, he will have weathered a historic Democrat wave on the power of his moderate record and likable personality and Merkley will be well positioned to run for governor in 2010. If Merkley wins, he will have defeated an incumbent U.S. senator in a great year for Democrats and few will view Smith's defeat as a personal repudiation of his 12 years of service in the Senate.
LOSERS
  • Oregon Republicans — It's almost beside the point to observe that the Republican Party in Oregon is now officially dead. Changes in the national identity of the GOP over the past 20 years have not been kind to Oregon Republicans. Broke and leaderless and with more ideology than ideas, it's hard to see a reversal of fortunes anytime soon for the GOP.
  • Well-known Democrats — Looking at Smith's war chest and early popularity in 2007, all of the state's best known Democrats took a pass on the U.S. Senate race, opening the door for little-known Jeff Merkley to either win a coveted seat in the U.S. Senate or become a front-runner for future, higher office.
  • Rural Oregon — With a new Democrat administration and emboldened state and national Democrat majorities (all backed by environmental groups), Oregon's traditional natural resource industries will face even greater regulatory and economic pressures that will likely have negative consequences for small-town Oregon.
  WASHINGTON
   The other Washington's votes for Barack Obama allowed the television networks to call the presidential race last night just minutes after the polls closed on the West Coast. Washington re-elected its Democratic governor and most other congressional incumbents, although vote counting continues in Washington's 8th District where it's too close to call.

WINNERS

  • The environmental community — The Cascade Curtain, that dividing line between a quarter of the state's population to the east and the other three quarters in the west, may have parted just a tad to allow in Peter Goldmark, a Democratic rancher, who apparently has been elected lands commissioner. It has been 24 years since an easterner has won statewide office. The environmental community is the big winner in this contest after a brisk debate over whether it should support Doug Sutherland, the moderate incumbent.
  • Non-partisanship — The King County Council, famous for its partisanship and bickering, will pursue a makeover next year. Voters approved a measure to make the council non-partisan. Republican members, concerned about growing Democratic numbers in the suburbs, spearheaded the move.
  • Rail Transit — The expansion of rail transit in Puget Sound passed in Snohomish, Pierce and King Counties with surprising ease. The win is a tribute to Joni Earl who took over Sound Transit a few years ago when its first phase program was in disarray. She led completion of the first 19 miles that will open early next year. Another 36 miles, now approved by voters, will go farther north and south as well as across Lake Washington to points east.
LOSERS
  • Zimbabwe by the bay — King County supplies nearly 40% of Washington's votes, but the county ballot counters can only tally a third of its ballots on election night. New voting machines sit in the warehouse because they are not yet certified. The count will continue very slowly and last all week. After a similar disaster four years ago, a measure was on the ballot asking whether the county election official should be elected. It is passing with robust support.
  • Building Industry Association of Washington — Took millions of their member's dues and spent them freely in a mean-spirited campaign to unseat Governor Gregoire. Well-known for their eastern Washington billboards “Don't Let Seattle Steal This Election,” a reference to Gregoire's 133 vote majority four years ago, the BIAW is now shut out in the legislature and faces a lawsuit on whether its tactics violated state disclosure laws.
  • Washington Assessment of Student Learning — Though it is still too close to call, Randy Dorn appears to be the next Superintendent of Public Instruction, besting the incumbent Teresa Bergeson. If Dorn prevails, look for a thorough rehash of the testing issue in the Washington legislature with teachers on one side and business on the other.
  WASHINGTON, D.C.
   All attention — and gossip — turns to the shape of the new Administration and the new Congress. Look for lots of regional speculation about spots in the Obama Administration and the standard jockeying for position to fill regional slots at agencies like EPA. Lots of folks will be tidying up the resume to prove they are true FOB's — Friends of Barack. Many regional Democrats are clear winners in this new environment.

WINNERS

  • Senate Democrats — They bolstered their majority in the U.S. Senate, but appear to fall short of the 60-vote “supermajority” needed to stop a Republican filibuster. Montana's Baucus on taxes, Washington's Murray on appropriations and Oregon's Wyden on health care will all enjoy enhanced clout.
  • Renewable energy — The president-elect made a strong case for investment in renewable energy and critical transmission infrastructure, two energy issues of great importance to the Northwest.
  • Those who are mentioned — For interior, Rep. George Miller (CA) and Rep. Jay Inslee (WA) and for energy Gov. Brian Schweitzer (MT) and Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM). Also early backers of Obama like former Idaho Governor and Interior Secretary Cecil D. Andrus.
LOSERS
  • Traditional NW industries — Many of the mainstays of the regional economy could face greater scrutiny under an emboldened Democratic administration and Congress.
  • Northwest Republicans — The West Coast has become an even bluer coast with one GOP House seat each in Oregon, Idaho and Montana and possibly three (depending on continuing vote counting) in Washington.
  • Alaska — Time and events will tell how the Great North emerges from this fascinating and historic election. But count on hearing a lot more about Alaskans named Ted and Sarah.
 


Rose Law Group Borton, Local Leader in Land Use Solutions

When the partners of Phoenix, AZ law firm Rose Law decided to launch a Boise, Idaho branch, they called upon the media expertise of Gallatin Public Affairs to help generate headlines.
Read More >

Winning the Boeing 7E7

When Gov. Gary Locke signed the agreement to assemble the Boeing 7E7 in Everett, Boeing vice president Mike Bair confided that when the aerospace giant started the site selection process, Boeing officials didn’t think Washington had a chance.
Read More >

Solving a Taxing Problem

When the Montana Department of Revenue (MDOR) faced the challenge of replacing its crippled computer system, Fast Enterprises, maker of GenTax, the first off-the-shelf integrated tax processing package, contacted The Gallatin Group.
Read More >

Siting an Energy Facility

Ida-West Energy, an independent power producer and affiliate of Idaho Power Company, was charged with siting and permitting a 250-megawatt, natural gas turbine energy facility in southwestern Idaho.
Read More >

Securing Seafood Jobs

In 2001, Pacific Seafood Group faced increasingly strict regulations governing wastewater discharges from its Warrenton, Ore., fish processing plant.
Read More >

Expanding Northwest Trade and Jobs

The Columbia River Channel Coalition had successfully built public consensus among the political and opinion leaders of the Pacific Northwest for an economically viable and environmentally sound plan to deepen and maintain the Columbia River channel from Portland to Astoria.
Read More >

Communicating in a Crisis

As the largest hospital in the region, Sacred Heart Medical Center in Spokane, Wash., receives constant media attention on a wide variety of issues ranging from capital building projects to labor negotiations to medical crises.
Read More >

Coalition Brings Sweet Success

The Amalgamated Sugar Company, the largest sugar beet cooperative in Idaho, wanted to extend an Idaho Department of Transportation pilot project that allowed the use of 129,000-pound trucks on specific routes.
Read More >