August 17, 2010

Washington State’s Primary Election is today, so the fearless forecasters in our Spokane office figured it was time to gaze into the crystal ball to predict primary and general election outcomes for the most important and interesting races impacting the Inland Northwest. We will be looking at several trends in politics and the campaign trails that will influence Tuesday’s elections and ultimately November’s results.

Will the anger against the politics as usual candidates and the anti-incumbent fervor generate greater voter turnout or greater apathy? Will the Democrat base turn out? Will Tea Party candidates continue to upset Republican establishment candidates and incumbents? Tuesday’s results will either give us a better idea of whether Republicans will storm back to power as they did in 1994 or if the Democrats remain strong enough to survive some very close races to stay in power.

While we at Gallatin are prepared to be humbled by an unpredictable electorate, we nonetheless make the following predictions.

Congressional Races:

Washington’s 5th Congressional District
Cathy McMorris Rodgers is the closest thing to a locked-in win there is. None of the challengers have mustered the finances, or developed enough name recognition that would cause her to raise a sweat. Of the 5 candidates that are running against her, who will she face in the general election? It will either be the endorsed Democrat candidate who has hardly garnered any name recognition, a well-known TV weather man, or even the Constitution Party candidate could pull through to the general election if he receives enough backing from the energized Tea Party.

McMorris Rodgers has had an impressive year raising funds for her own campaign and for those of fellow Republicans on the state and national level. Some observers speculate that the national Republican Party is grooming Cathy to be the softer, female face that the Party would like to project; an image that will be more important to uphold as inevitable spending cuts are expected to dominate the 112th session of Congress. At this stage she is undoubtedly a choice candidate to take on incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell in 2012, however with a second child expected in a few months, she may be more comfortable in her position representing Eastern Washington.

McMorris Rodgers’ annual Pink Flamingo BBQ fundraiser is on August 18th, with special guest Rep. Eric Cantor, the Minority Whip from Virginia and the only Republican Jewish Member of Congress. An understandable choice for a guest speaker, as some observers have noticed the growing influence of recently appointed chief of staff Jeremy Deutsch, an ardent supporter of AIPAC, the lobby organization for Israeli issues in America. A larger role in pro-Israel issues along with the removal of staff members in DC who are actually from Eastern Washington, may be indicative of a shift in direction for the McMorris Rodgers office in the 2011 post-election congressional session. Stay tuned.

Idaho’s 1st Congressional District

Incumbent Walt Minnick, a true “blue dog Democrat” will hold on to the seat. Many Republicans and Republican supporting organizations and companies, such as the Associated General Contractors, Potlatch Corporation and the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry are supporting Minnick because of his business background, his pro-business orientation, and his votes against major Administration initiatives such as the Health Care reform package. Spokane’s Avista Corporation, which usually picks the winners, is also backing Minnick. Though a heavily Republican District will make the race closer than it should be, Minnick will win because of greater name familiarity, his conservative record, his over $1 million campaign funding advantage and he drew the right opponent. Republican Raul Labrador is a smoother version of Bill Sali, who Walt defeated in 2008. Labrador’s very conservative politics will keep Idaho’s more moderate Republicans and Republican leaning independents in Walt’s camp.

Washington’s U.S. Senate Race

In the August primary, three-term incumbent Senator Patty Murray will easily be the top vote-getter for the Senate seat she currently holds. The question is who will end up being her opponent in the general election? The Murray campaign believes it will be former State Senator and two-time losing candidate for Governor Dino Rossi. Murray is gearing up for a serious battle in November as the advertisements slamming Rossi and connecting him to Wall Street have already been heavily deployed.

With the conservative vote playing a large role in the primary elections, look for former Washington Redskin football player and Tea Party favorite Clint Didier to give Rossi a run for his money. Millionaire Bellingham businessman Paul Aker will siphon off at least 5% of the vote. All of these votes from Didier and Akers coming right out of Dino’s base. Dino will get through the primary. The latest polls indicate Murray and Dino in a tight matchup, but expect the Murray campaign, which is stashed with cash, disciplined, and well organized by Patty’s talented former chief of staff Jeff Bjornstad, to pull off a victory in November.

State Races:

Idaho governor

The smart money continues to bet on incumbent Governor Butch Otter, despite a lackluster, anemic campaign. We say anemic because as the incumbent he has not raised much money and is being outraised by his policy-wonk opponent, Keith Allred, which has lead to a fundraising plea by Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi on behalf of Butch. Allred continues too to miss real opportunities to slam the Governor such as the scandal at the Tax commission where special payment and/or forgiveness programs have allegedly been worked out for some well-connected Idahoans.

Allred continues to spend the bulk of his time in southeastern Idaho hoping his own LDS roots will help sway the heavily LDS southeast to abandon long-time Republican loyalties and support his cause. In fact, indications are Allred is making significant progress with voters in Southeast Idaho. However, the nod still goes to Butch in what will be a tighter race than most expect.

Washington’s Sixth Legislative District

6th LD State Senator

State Senator Chris Marr, who broke a Republican trend for holding the seat for 60 years, will win in both the primary and the general. A hard worker and an even harder campaigner, he has raised the second most money of any legislative candidate in the state. Chris has raised over $300,000 and if this year is anything like 2006 in his race against incumbent Brad Benson, he won’t be afraid to spend every penny of it, let alone dip into his own substantial resources if he has to in order to hold on to the seat.

His opponent Michael Baumgartner is an articulate and intelligent former US State Department advisor running in the 6th for the first time. He has been criticized as a carpet bagger for having just moved into the district, thanks largely in part by a letter to the editor from Don Barbieri. Baumgartner does indeed have roots in the area, and quite frankly he would make a good legislator. Republicans are expected to put lots of resources into this race in the hopes of winning and recapturing the State Senate. And while Mike got off to a bumpy start, probably later than he should have, he has steadily improved his campaign. But it simply won’t be enough to defeat Marr come November. Expect to see Baumgartner in 2012.

6th LD State Representative Pos. 1

One would have expected the Democrats to at least offer a sacrificial lamb to the seat held by Kevin “knock-on-every-door-twice” Parker, but come filing deadline no one dared enter the race. Although Parker has no opponent, he continuously works tirelessly door-belling, fundraising, and campaigning as though he was in a hotly contested race. Parker is a rising star in the Republican ranks as he has proven his capabilities as an effective legislator, visible business leader, and relentless campaigner.

6th LD State Representative Pos. 2

This is the race that is the true wild card. Newcomer Shelly O’Quinn has been beating the pavement harder than any other candidate in Spokane this year. Most of her energy has been focused on campaigning adamantly against former Rep. John Ahern for the right to oppose the incumbent Democrat John Driscoll, who narrowly beat Ahern in 2008. O’Quinn has faced the same criticism facing Baumgartner, being labeled as a carpet bagger since she and her husband are renting the home they currently reside in while the one they own is located in the 4th.

If one follows our old rule about the most conservative candidate emerging from the Primary as the standard bearer, don’t be surprised to see John Ahern squeak back in. Here’s our prediction. In an Ahern vs. Driscoll match-up, Driscoll wins. However, the Gallatin office is split in our prediction that if O’Quinn manages a win tomorrow the seat will return back to its Republican roots with an O’Quinn victory in November against Driscoll.

3rd LD State Representative Pos. 1

Alex Wood’s retirement from his seat in the most Democratic district in the state opened the door to one of the more entertaining races, one in which we see a rising star for the Democrats, Andy Billig. Andy is a business Democrat, the president of the Spokane Indians baseball club, and he has run a disciplined well-organized and well-funded campaign. His two leading opponents are fellow Democrats Bob Apple, who sits on the Spokane City Council, and long-time party activist Louise Chadez. We think it will be Billig vs. Apple tomorrow with Andy eventually winning the seat in November.

3rd LD State Representative Pos. 2

In a blue district like the 3rd, Democrat Rep. Timm Ormsby is a lock for this seat. The young and energetic Morgan Oyler does deserve a nod of respect however for his tenacity on the campaign trail.

Spokane County Commissioner

Most Spokanites would agree, if there is one thing that this race has certainly generated, it’s an obnoxious amount of campaign signage littering the streets and arterials of Spokane County. City Council member Al French, and newcomer business entrepreneur Steve Salvatori face-off against Democratic incumbent Bonnie Mager. Perhaps it’s our proclivity to root for the underdog, but we think Salvatori will pull off a surprise and be the leading Republican vote-getter tomorrow. Conventional wisdom says the only Democrat in the race will get the most votes. Nobody chipping away at Mager’s base will get her past the primary.

3rd Judicial District

Recently appointed Judge Laurel Siddoway, with solid ratings from the bar and solid Democratic connections should hold onto her judgeship against right-wing, underfunded, Republican Harvey Dunham.